Area Forecast Discussion GYX (2024)

FXUS61 KGYX 081026AFDGYXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
626 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2024
Area Forecast Discussion GYX (1)
SYNOPSISOVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AN AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHERWILL SLOWLY WOBBLE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MORE FALL-LIKE, WITH HIGHS LIKELY FAILING TO REACH TO THE 60S BY THURSDAY AGAIN A BRIEF WARM UP IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER

Area Forecast Discussion GYX (2)

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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/630 AM UPDATE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONALTRENDS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD AND THIS HAS ALLOWEDFOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER MUCH OF NH AND FAR WESTERN ME STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY

PREVIOUSLYLATEST RAP13 SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS TUESDAYMORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ME WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW OVER EASTERN ME THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THEMOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THEM WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWSLINGERING STRATUS OVER MUCH OF ME WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER NH OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES EITHER REMAIN OR BECOME CLEAR

LATER TODAY LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIANMARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH ANDWEST IT WILL BE A BREEZY BUT MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH NORTHWESTWIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FAIRLYHIGH MIXING LEVELS UP TO AROUND 850 MB WILL MIX DOWN A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30SAND LOWER 40S TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOL WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +2C, AND THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURESAT THE SURFACE TO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORELINE TODAY ANDTHEREFORE A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OFCLOUD COVER AS A WEAK S/WV TROUGH CROSSES NEAR THE REGIONINITIALLY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT SOMEADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY LATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNINGHOURS, AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HREF SOLUTION DESPITE THIS,DEW POINTS WILL BE RATHER LOW AND THERE IS EXPECTED TO LARGEBREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER AND THUS STILL EXPECTING OVERALL GOODRADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE THE HEIGHT OF THE CLOUDS WILLALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TEND TO NOTIMPACT COOLING AS MUCH AS MID-LEVEL FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROMTHE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH UPPER30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS WENT AHEADAND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WHERETHE SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE AND THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE ISGREATEST FOR WIDESPREAD FROST

Area Forecast Discussion GYX (3)

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SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURESPINS OVER QUEBEC AND A PASSING S/WV CROSSES OVER THE NORTHSKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION BUT MOSTLY CLOUDYACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES A FEWSCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ANDMOUNTAINS WHICH COULD FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS BUTOVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY DAY HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDEWITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH

Area Forecast Discussion GYX (4)

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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/OVERVIEW: A SERIES OF POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE ALEUTIANS WILL PROMOTE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THRU THE PERIOD AS A RESULT TROFING WILL BE FAVORED LOCALLYWITH GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER

IMPACTS: THE COOLER PATTERN WILL HAVE SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST TUE NIGHTOTHERWISE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED

FORECAST DETAILS: THE INITIAL STORM IN THE GULF OF AK FORCING RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL KEEP THE UPPER LOW TUMBLING AROUND THE NORTHEAST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK S/WV TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASESIN SHOWER/UPSLOPE SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL THE UPPER LOW IS FINALLYKICKED OUT ONE SUCH S/WV TROF LOOKS SET TO CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT/THU MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO MAINLY THE LOWER LEVELSSO I HAVE KEPT POP CLOSER TO AN UPSLOPE PATTERN THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT DO ALSO LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABOVE 2000-2500 FT SO SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MTNS LATER IN THE WEEK

THE OVERALL COLDER PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME LOW TEMPS IN THE 30SESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNDER THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE UPPER LOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION

Area Forecast Discussion GYX (5)

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AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/SHORT TERMCEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGHTHIS MORNING BUT LINGERING FG AND LOCALIZED LOWER CEILINGS WILLCONTINUE TO RESULT IN IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS VFR CONDITIONSARE THEN EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANYVALLEY FG AT KHIE, KLEB, AND POSSIBLY KCON VFR CONDITIONS ARETHEN LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NO LLWS IS FORECAST

LONG TERMLARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TERRAIN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY IN UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER THAT IS MORE OR LESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL EACH DAY A PASSING BOUNDARY MIDWEEK MAY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA COVERAGE AND I CANNOT RULE OUT LOCAL MVFR IF THOSE SHRA CAN MAINTAIN OVER THE TERRAIN THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF VALLEY FOG

Area Forecast Discussion GYX (6)

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MARINESHORT TERMSOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS OF 4-6 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSSTHE OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDINGNORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BELOW SCA LEVELS

LONG TERMOFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD LATE INTHE WEEK STRONGER CAA ACROSS THE WATERS MAY LEAD TO MARGINAL SCACONDITIONSWITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 5 FTOUTSIDE OF THE BAYS

Area Forecast Discussion GYX (7)

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GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIESMEFROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012-018-033 HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028NHFROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003>006 HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014MARINE

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150- 152-154

Area Forecast Discussion GYX (8)

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Area Forecast Discussion GYX (9)
Area Forecast Discussion GYX (2024)
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